Lexington, Mass. (CBS CONNECTICUT) — Hispanics will compose more than 40 percent of the increase in U.S. employment over the next five years and is estimated to rise to 75 percent from 2020 to 2034.
A new study, Hispanic Immigration and U.S. Economic Growth, analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data and business projections to predict that 11 of 14 million economy-wide jobs will be filled by the U.S.’s Hispanic population. IHS, a global business consulting firm, projects that Hispanic employment growth will average 2.6 percent per year over the next 20 years.
However, the growth of jobs within the non-Hispanic working age population will “slow to near zero” over the same time period.
“The Hispanic population is a younger and faster growing segment of the population, while trends in the non-Hispanic population are heavily influenced by the aging baby-boomer generation that is moving into retirement,” said James Gillula, IHS economist and the study’s lead author. “The Hispanic population will play an increasingly significant role in future U.S. employment growth.”
New non-Hispanic workers entering the labor force are expected to “barely offset retiring Baby Boomers,” while at the same time, the Hispanic share of the total U.S. workforce will rise from 16 percent in 2014 to 23 percent by 2034.
U.N. projections noted in the study predict Latin American countries to continue being the source of immigrants to the U.S. despite generally positive long-term economic outlooks.
According to U.S. Census Bureau assumptions about future Hispanic net international migration, the number of foreign born Hispanics will increase from 22 million in 2014 to over 29 million in 2034, and the foreign-born share of the Hispanic population will fall slowly over this period – from 39.7 percent to 34.8 percent, according to the study.
“Higher levels of immigration are conducive to stronger U.S. economic growth, and there are credible scenarios for higher levels of Hispanic immigration than assumed in the study’s baseline forecast,” according to the IHS statement.
The number of Hispanics speaking Spanish in their home is expected to rise from 36.9 million in 2014 to 55.4 million in 2034.
The Hispanic Immigration and U.S. Economic Growth study was commissioned by Univision Communications, Inc.