By Mike Bachini, CBS Connecticut
Connecticut (CBS) – For the first time, the selection committee gave the public a glimpse into their minds when they revealed their early top 16 teams this past Saturday. That was 29 days before the official selection process was to take place and a lot can change in terms of teams resume’s in that amount of time. But it was a nice change of pace for the committee to be a little more transparent leading up to Selection Sunday. They do a nice job of fielding questions after the bracket is revealed, but that doesn’t help in the days leading up to the big day.
What the early reveal did was help the public see how they rank the top teams, and how they could be slotted when the official bracket is announced. What is still a question, is how they view the teams that are sitting right on the edge of making it into the tournament, or what everyone likes to call “the bubble”. We can try to take what we learned from the top 16 reveal and apply it to teams on the bubble, which is what I’ll try to do.
Looking at the top 16 and where they were slotted, it seems as though the committee places the most emphasis on top 50 RPI wins and road/neutral wins. This lets the committee know that you have the ability to beat good teams, and you don’t have to do all of your damage at home. These are two key factors in NCAA tournament play. Of course other factors like strength of schedule, out of conference strength of schedule and top 100 wins also play a part, but it seems to a smaller degree. When looking at teams on “the bubble”, there will be less top 50 wins than teams in the top 16. That’s a given. But if your team has a few good wins where a team who has a comparable overall resume has fewer, it seems as though that might be the thing that puts your team over the edge and in to the tournament.
Below I will take a look at the teams in each conference who have a chance at hearing their name called on March 12th. I will start with the top 6 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) and then proceed alphabetically with the remaining conferences.
In = The team could lose all of the rest of their games between now and March 12th and they would still be in the tournament. Obviously their seeding would take a hit, but it would be a complete shock if they weren’t in the tournament.
Almost In = These are the teams who are not quite there yet, but only need a few more wins to reach “In” status.
Bubble = Teams that might be in if the field was announced today, but are in direct competition with many other teams. These are the teams whose resume’s we will take a deeper look at.
In (5) – Louisville, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia, Duke
Almost In (1) – Notre Dame
Bubble In (5) – Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami, Clemson, Syracuse
Bubble Out – Georgia Tech
Conference Analysis – No it’s not crazy to think that 11 teams from the ACC will make the tournament. The top 6 are very solid. All of the bubble teams are right there on the edge though. Georgia Tech could find themselves on the right side of the bubble with a couple of nice wins, the opposite could be said for Miami, Clemson and Syracuse.
In (4) – Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Xavier
Bubble In (2) – Seton Hall, Providence
Bubble Out – Georgetown, Marquette
Conference Analysis – The top 4 are solidly in the tournament. The strength of a few of those teams can be questioned at this time due to significant injuries to star players on Creighton and Xavier. Their resume’s to this point aren’t in question however. Seton Hall picked up a much needed home win against Creighton last night and their stock is currently trending in the right direction. Providence’s big win over Xavier at home plus Indiana’s loss at Minnesota puts them in as the 68th team in the field.
In (3) – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
Probably In (3) – Oklahoma State, Iowa State, TCU
Bubble In (1) – Kansas State
Conference Analysis – The Big 12 has a few title contenders at the top, and a pretty solid middle as well. I might be a little generous in where I’m slotting TCU right now, but the rest of their schedule is full of resume boosting opportunities that can only enhance their overall profile in the next few weeks.
In (3) – Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Probably In (2) – Minnesota, Northwestern
Bubble In (3) – Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana
Bubble Out – Ohio State
Conference Analysis – This has been a down year for the Big 10. The top 3 could all very well make runs to the Elite 8, but the whole conference could also be out of the tournament after the first weekend as well. Michigan State and Indiana are not having very good years after somewhat high expectations for both. Indiana has been hit hard with injuries and have not played all that consistent this season. They have huge wins over Kansas and North Carolina which will always look good, but they also have some head scratching losses to go with them. The next few weeks will be huge for the Hoosiers.
In (3) – Oregon, Arizona, UCLA
Probably In (2) – Cal, USC
Conference Analysis – The Pac-12 is very top heavy. Sometimes the strength of the conference comes in to question when there are so many bad teams at the bottom. This is not the case for the Pac-12 however. Oregon, Arizona and UCLA could all make final four runs, they are that good. Cal and USC have the ability to make it to the sweet 16, or flame out in the first round as well.
In (3) – Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Bubble In (1) – Arkansas
Bubble Out – Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss
Conference Analysis – Florida has been one of the best teams in college basketball for the past 3 weeks. They did lose leading rebounder John Egbunu for the season with a torn ACL on Tuesday however. Kentucky hit a bump in the road but looks to be getting back on track. South Carolina will make sure that they leave no doubt in the committee’s eyes unlike last year where they were the biggest snub on Selection Sunday in some opinions.
In – Cincinnati, SMU
Bubble Out – Houston
Conference Analysis – The American is another league that is having a pretty bad year overall. Uconn and Memphis have had sub par seasons, Tulsa fell off after a few good seasons and UCF has been unable to make the leap to NCAA tournament worthy. Houston has a few opportunities for some solid wins to enhance their resume down the stretch against SMU at home and at Cincinnati. Win those and avoid a loss to East Carolina and Houston might be considered in when all is said and done.
In (2) – VCU, Dayton
Bubble Out – Rhode Island
Conference Analysis – Rhode Island was right on the cut line, until a 10 point home loss to Fordham put them completely on the wrong side of the bubble. Rhode Island just doesn’t have the resume to stack up against other bubble contenders. Their only good win was against Cincinnati on a neutral court, they lost to fellow bubbler Houston and conference tournament aside, they only have 1 more opportunity at a real good conference win against VCU in 9 days. They will need to run the table and then get a few wins in the A-10 tournament to get on the right side of the bubble again.
Bubble In (2) – Wichita State, Illinois State
Conference Analysis – One of these teams will most likely win “Arch Madness” in St. Louis and get the automatic bid into the tournament. The other, will sit around for a week and hope that their bubble doesn’t burst in the meantime. As of now I’d see both of these teams getting in if they don’t with their conference tournament. They both need to avoid serious missteps until tournament time though.
16. New Orleans/UC Davis
8. Oklahoma State
4. West Virginia
6. Notre Dame
11. Illinois State
2. North Carolina
16. Florida Gulf Coast
9. Virginia Tech
12. Middle Tennessee
13. UNC Wilmington
3. Florida State
7. South Carolina
10. Seton Hall
16. Texas Southern
8. Wake Forest
12. Syracuse/Kansas State
11. Miami (FL)
14. Colorado State
15. Cal State Bakersfield
16. Mount St. Mary’s/NC Central
9. Iowa State
11. Wichita State
7. St. Mary’s
10. Michigan State
15. North Dakota State
Last 4 In – Clemson, Syracuse, Kansas State, Providence
First 4 Out – Indiana, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech
Next 4 Out – Ole Miss, Marquette, Tennessee, Ohio State
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